WP2 Risk assessment

The word risk sitting on a wooden board
photo credit - patpitchaya

Unconventional hydrocarbon production and geological CO2 storage utilise deep geological formations, and both require safe and monitored deployment. Rigorous assessment of potential impacts and the development of mitigation strategies for the full lifecycle of any project is essential.

This work package will produce a risk assessment framework that project developers can use to assess hazards and the likelihood of specific risks in relation to protecting the environment. This framework can be used to underpin policymaking and develop effective remedial strategies.

Using a portfolio of existing European and North American facilities and field sites, our researchers will investigate leakage processes and impacts at laboratory and field-scale to enable them to characterise and quantify relevant risk factors. Ultimately, this will result in a set of guidelines for carrying out transparent and verifiable risk assessments.


Blog: What do modelling earthquakes and epidemics have in common?

SECURe partner Thomas Le Guenan (BRGM) describes a common thread in the study of seismic events and the work of epidemiologists.


D2.6 Guidelines for risk assessment for leakage and induced seismicity risk in CO2 storage and unconventional gas production

Subsurface storage of CO2  [CCS] and a change from coal to gas as a transition fuel with a lower CO2 footprint can contribute to an accelerated reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere required to mitigate climate change. Leakage and induced seismicity risks associated with CCS and (unconventional) gas production [UGP] may hamper safe and efficient CO2 storage or (unconventional) gas production. Therefore, in WP2 of the SECURe project these risks are studied with a focus on (1) well integrity, (2) subsurface integrity and fluid or gas migration, and (3) induced seismicity. This report outlines a synthesis of good or recommended practices for CCS and UGP that serves as a knowledge base underpinning measures to reduce of leakage and induced seismicity risks.

D2.5 Report on analysis from simulations and laboratory testing of risk factors in controlling brina, hydrocarbon, CO2 and injected fluid migration, with implications for caprock, overburden and wellbore integrity

This report serves as an extensive collection of research methods and practices on how to understand and quantify the potential risks associated with carbon capture and storage and unconventional hydrogen production. The document details the following work: a risk framework, based on the bow-tie methodology; lab experiments on the integrity of well cement to uncover cement properties and permeabilities; a geomechanical model developed to analyze debonding and radial cracking of cement for a shale gas well and a CO2 injection well; field and lab work performed on an outcrop in the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory; a fault zone analysis investigating the presence of relic brine in the Polish subsurface; and a comparison between a fast, analytical model and a coupled numerical model on assessing the potential of fault reactivation and seismicity near an injection well.

D2.4 Report on geochemical models: long term effects of CO2 and methane leakage on groundwater - data and models based on two field injection experiments

This deliverable describes a CO2 injection site and a CH4 injection site to ascertain if there are still effects of controlled leakages in the groundwater and or the sediment. For the CO2 site the injection took place ~7 years prior to the sampling, for the CH4 site ~4.5 years had passed when it was resampled. Water samples and sediment samples were acquired and analysed and models describing the development on short and long term have been developed. 

D2.3 Report on induced seismicity models

Amongst the various threats considered in Geoenergy projects, the risk of induced seismicity is an important one as it already leads to paused or stopped deep geothermal, shale gas or conventional gas projects and is thus one of the main concerns of stakeholders. This report deals with models for induced seismicity as a tool for assessing its risk and is designed mainly for researchers and engineers interested in risk assessment of induced seismicity.

D2.2 Report on effects of long-term sequestration process in the Borzęcin structure – observation evidence of the injected gas migration and possible leakage

Monitoring work at Borzecin in Poland

Monitoring of CO2-H2S sequestration at the Borzecin reservoir (Poland) gives an important opportunity to assess propagation and intensity of acid gas migration and potential leak pathways towards surface receptors. Various tests and analyses were performed on downhole, as well as surface samples of reservoir fluids, giving new data to add to a long-ranging historical dataset describing environmental conditions at the site. A constructed and calibrated model of the reservoir structure is used to predict the future performance of the current sequestration project. In addition, the capacity of the Borzęcin structure for increased sequestration is assessed by finding the optimum scenario of the risk-free sequestration performance.


Pyrite dissolution rate in saline fluids and implications for fracking

Veerle Vandeginste, University of Nottingham  ABSTRACT

The geomechanical response of naturally fractured carbonate reservoirs to operation of a geothermal doublet


Simulation of induced seismic ground motions using coupled geomechanical and seismic wave propagation models


Report on State-of-the-art Microseismicity Techniques in Europe and North America (SECURe Report D2.1)

Induced seismicity can arise from a variety of situations, usually in relation with extraction or injection of fluids. One of the challenges is monitoring the micro-seismicity, before assessing the actual risk. This report gives a state-of-the-art review of microseismicity techniques using examples from Europe and North America, and serves as an introduction for many tasks within the SECURe project that are related to induced seismicity.